ICO Predicts Global Coffee Demand Will Exceed Supply

Posted On: 12/11/2019

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ALEXANDRIA, VA -- Coffee consumption is outpacing production and there’s likely to be a deficit of about 502,000 bags for the 2019/20 crop, according to the International Coffee Organization. The ICO also reported that coffee prices rose 10.1% in November, and they remained higher than $1 per pound every day of the month.

Global exports of coffee in October 2019 fell by 13.4%, to 8.91 million bags, compared to the same month in the previous year. ICO said a mix of factors, including unfavorable weather patterns and prolonged low international prices, have contributed to a decline in shipments across all regions.

Click here to see ICO’s full report.

The coffee shortage has been in the making since the beginning of the year, with historically low prices prompting farmers in Central America, Colombia and Peru to abandon their farms.

The anticipated 502,000-bag deficit is only a small portion compared to the amount of coffee produced annually and not an immediate cause for alarm, according to several experts and economists quoted in a Marketwatch article.

Meanwhile, demand for coffee in the U.S., and gourmet coffee in particular, continues to rise. The Specialty Coffee Association of America recently reported that the U.S. coffee market grew by 8% in 2018. And people are consuming more gourmet and specialty coffee than ever before, according to the National Coffee Association. Its annual National Coffee Data Trends report released in March showed that, for the first time, gourmet coffee accounted for more than half of coffee drinkers' cups.